Health Policy Simulation

Modeling the Future

For more than a decade, the Schaeffer Center has been developing economic models to answer salient policy questions about aging in the United States.

The pioneering Future Elderly Model (FEM) models trends in health, functional status, health spending, pharmaceutical innovation, labor supply and earnings for individuals over age 50 in the U.S. The FEM has grown in reach and effectiveness from its inception in 1997 to today, assisted by funding support over the years from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Department of Labor and others. In addition, the microsimulation team has created a global network of collaborators who are building out country-level FEM-based models in 17 countries. An extension of FEM, the Future Adult Model (FAM), models similar functions for individuals ages 25 to 50.